Ex-post Evaluation of the Exposure of Built-up High Valuated Assets (HVA) for Wildfire Damage Analysis at WUI and Vulnerability Modelling

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INRAE presentation

The French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food, and Environment (INRAE) is a major player in research and innovation. It is a community of 12,000 people with 272 research, experimental research, and support units located in 18 regional centres throughout France. Internationally, INRAE is among the top research organisations in the agricultural and food sciences, plant and animal sciences, as well as in ecology and environmental science. It is the world’s leading research organisation specialising in agriculture, food and the environment. INRAE’s goal is to be a key player in the transitions necessary to address major global challenges. Faced with a growing world population, climate change, resource scarcity, and declining biodiversity, the Institute has a major role to play in building solutions and supporting the necessary acceleration of agricultural, food and environmental transitions.

The RECOVER Joint Research Unit (UMR RECOVER) is a joint INRAE ​​Aix-Marseille University unit focused on ecosystem functioning and natural hazards. Its objectives are:

• to develop regional knowledge regarding fire risks, hydrology, the proper functioning of hydraulic structures, and to support decision-making in this area;
• to study the dynamics of aquatic and forest ecosystems under the constraints of global change, the challenges of ecosystem restoration, and to develop tools and methods for assessing the state of ecosystems.

Work environment, missions and activities

Context and issues

In Mediterranean France, forest fires have only significantly impacted man-made structures (buildings, facilities, infrastructure, etc.) for about a decade. While previously, impacts on buildings were exceptional, the 2016 Rognac fire, with its thirty or so buildings affected, marked a turning point in the Southeast region. The recent fires in Pennes Mirabeau on July 8 and 9, 2025 (often called the Marseille 2025 fire) and the Ribaute fire from August 5 to 10, 2025 (often called the "Aude 2025 fire") caused extensive damage to built structures in the natural-urban interface. They confirm the predictions of an increase in the occurrence of large-scale, high-impact fires, as outlined in several studies (Pimont et al. 2023) linked to climate change. Several data collections on building damage, both within and outside the framework of official lessons learned (RETEX) programs, have been conducted on the Pennes Mirabeau and Ribaute fires, which serve as benchmarks for the inventory of building damage. These records, exhaustive or based on external observation, generally do not include interviews with witnesses or residents. These events constitute a potentially massive source of information on the occurrence of damage, unprecedented to date in Mediterranean France, even though previous events, such as the Gonfaron fire of 2021 (as well as the Rognac fire of 2016 and the Graveson fire of 2020), have been used to better understand the factors contributing to damage to buildings and to model the processes involved.

Three main approaches are used to model the vulnerability of built assets at interfaces: the multi-criteria approach, which formalizes expert knowledge to assess vulnerability; the model-based approach, which simulates fire behavior at interfaces in heterogeneous fuels and aims at assessing assets exposure and at reproducing in silico scenarios of damage to assets caused by a real fire; and the statistical approach, which traditionally allows for the identification of explanatory variables for damage in a significant sample of damage sites. Combining these three approaches, with the goal of providing a robust formal answer to the question of building vulnerability, requires data acquisition to both initial state and fire damages at different scales, particularly at the scale of the built property (house and its garden).

Objectives

The objective of this work is to evaluate the VULNEFEUX multi-criteria building vulnerability model by comparing its outputs with those of two other classes of models: 1) statistical damage analysis of samples collected from the fires in Pennes Mirabeau and Ribaute (Aude); 2) simulation models of fire behavior at interfaces using standards code (Flammap) for exposure assessment. The multi-criteria model will then be applied before a fire occurs in a study area of ​​the Mediterranean hinterland, with a view to preventive territorial planning.

Tasks required

Analysis of damage data on a sample of buildings impacted by selected fires, preceded by work to supplement and consolidate the database. This will involve combining descriptive, deductive, and machine learning analyses.

Simulation of behavior for exposure assessment (local intensities and residence time) will be performed on a sample of typical scenarios.

Evaluation of the multi-criteria analysis model will be conducted by comparing the results obtained in the two previous steps with the vulnerability indices calculated by the model.

Dissemination of findings (publication submission, particularly if the contract is renewed).

Training and skills

We are seeking a young researcher with a PhD in fire science or, possibly, in geography, specializing in forest fires. Basic knowledge of remote sensing image analysis is required, as well as advanced knowledge of spatial data analysis and geographic information systems. Basic knowledge of fire behavior modeling/simulation is also required. Basic knowledge of multi-criteria analysis is an asset.

INRAE's life quality

By joining our teams, you benefit from (depending on the type of contract and its duration):

- up to 30 days of annual leave + 15 days "Reduction of Working Time" (for a full time);
- parenting support: CESU childcare, leisure services;
- skills development systems: training, career advise;
- social support: advice and listening, social assistance and loans;
- holiday and leisure services: holiday vouchers, accommodation at preferential rates;
- sports and cultural activities;
- collective catering.

How to apply

I send my CV and my motivation letter